FRISCO, Texas — The first domino that led to Dallas Cowboys three-time All-Pro Micah Parsons deciding to “just eat the fine” and skip NFL-mandated media sessions was Parsons’ attempt to say he cared more about the future of Hall of Fame right guard Zack Martin than head coach Mike McCarthy and his coaching future.
“That’s above my pay grade about if Mike [McCarthy] is coaching against next year,” Parsons said after last Sunday’s loss to the Eagles. “All coaching aside, Mike can leave and go wherever he wants. I kind of feel bad for guys like Zack Martin and guys who might be on their last year on their way out. Because that’s who I wanted to hold the trophy for. You want to win games and do great with those types of legends who put in more time and work than Mike McCarthy ever did. Those are the kind of guys I have so much sympathy and hurt for.”
Martin, whose seven first-team All-Pro selections are tied for the most in NFL history among offensive guards with Hall of Famers Randall McDaniel and John Hannah, is in the final year of his contract in 2024, his 11th NFL season. He is set to turn 34 on Nov. 20, so it’s natural to wonder if this season will be his last. His on-field production has been nothing short of excellent. Martin is a nine-time Pro Bowl choice who has the same number of career holding penalties (seven) as he does first-team All-Pro selections. However, the 2010’s All-Decade Team member has started to show his age across the last three seasons.
“I want to win every week,” Martin said on Thursday when asked about Parsons saying he wants to win for him. “I don’t think if you asked any guy in this locker room they wouldn’t be saying they aren’t trying to win every week. You play for the guys in the locker room, that’s what he [Parsons] was saying, right? You want to play for the guys in the locker room that you go to work with every day. That’s not going to change no matter what the circumstances are.”
Martin’s Pro Football Focus offensive grades have always vacillated between somewhere in the 80s to as high as 94.2 in 2021 at the age of 31. However, they have fallen off a cliff the last three seasons, dropping to 73.3 in 2022 and 70.5 in 2023 and now down to 65.2 this season.
CBS Sports asked Martin about his football future as he plays in the final year of his Cowboys contract.
“I’m just taking it one week at a time, my guy,” Martin said.
Despite playing through a nagging shoulder injury, he made it clear he won’t blame the ailment for his level of play this season.
“No, everyone’s banged up in this locker room and around the league. That’s not an excuse,” Martin said. “So at the end of the day, I got to play better. Our team, everyone’s got to play better. I mean, it’s no secret. We want to win some games, we got to play better.”
“Yeah, it’s just who he is. It’s Zack Martin, first-ballot Hall of Famer,” Cowboys fill-in starting quarterback Cooper Rush said Thursday when asked about Martin powering through injury. “It’s an example of what that looks like in terms of toughness, competitiveness, and it’s a great example for guys to go off of and look to. I don’t think anybody needs inspiration but that can help guys get motivated maybe.”
Parsons expressed a desire to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy for Martin because he hasn’t tasted much playoff success. Martin has played his entire career in Dallas and the Cowboys haven’t advanced past the NFC Divisional round during that span despite winning at least 10 games in six separate seasons.
“That’s just the way it’s worked out, right?” Martin said. “Again, we’re trying to win them all, and unfortunately we’ve come up short this year and in previous years. But again, guys are doing the right things, working the right way to prepare to get ready for Sunday. So first and foremost, that’s what you can ask from these guys — give it all you got throughout the week and on game day.”
The Dallas locker room is united around Martin as their team’s heartbeat. Even though the Cowboys are 3-6, have lost four straight and are without Prescott for the rest of the season due to a hamstring injury, turning the 2024 season around for Martin is a top priority. That starts on Monday night against the Houston Texans.
“A lot,” running back Rico Dowdle said when asked what Martin means to the team. “Zack has been here for a long time. A guy that comes in, he’s one of the upfront leaders. He leads by example. He comes in day in and day out, prepares the right way. So definitely means a lot. Guy is going to be a Hall of Famer one day. I think everybody wants to win for each other and specifically for guys like Zack. We got to dig ourselves out of this hole first, take it one game at a time. Definitely want to win that trophy for a guy like Zack that’s been here for a long time.”
First place in the NFC East will be on the line when the Washington Commanders battle the Philadelphia Eagles in a key matchup on Thursday Night Football. Washington is coming off a 28-27 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, while Philadelphia defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 34-6, last Sunday. The Commanders (7-3), who have won three of their past four games, are 5-1 against NFC opponents. The Eagles (7-2), who have won five in a row, are 4-2 against the NFC.
Kickoff from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The Eagles are four-point favorites in the latest Eagles vs. Commanders odds via SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 49.5, up a field goal from the opener. The Eagles are -214 money-line favorites (risk $214 to win $100), while the Commanders are +177 underdogs (risk $100 to win $177). Before making any Commanders vs. Eagles picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 17-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 197-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 51-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Commanders vs. Eagles and just locked in its NFL picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for Eagles vs. Commanders:
Eagles vs. Commanders spread: Philadelphia -4 Eagles vs. Commanders over/under: 49.5 points Eagles vs. Commanders money line: Washington +177, Philadelphia -214 WAS: Commanders are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games PHI: Eagles are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games Eagles vs. Commanders picks: See picks at SportsLine Why you should back the Eagles Quarterback Jalen Hurts powers Philadelphia’s offense. In nine games, he has completed 164 of 235 passes (69.8%) for 1,976 yards with 12 touchdowns and a 103.4 rating. He has also rushed 93 times for 378 yards (4.1 average) and 10 touchdowns. He has four explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 24. In last Sunday’s win over the Cowboys, he completed 14 of 20 passes (70%) for 202 yards and two touchdowns, and rushed seven times for 56 yards and two scores.
Running back Saquon Barkley should surpass 1,000 yards rushing for the season on TNF. He enters the game with 171 carries for 991 yards (5.8 average) and six touchdowns. He has eight explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 65. He also has 21 receptions for 158 yards (7.5 average) and two touchdowns. He has five games of 100 or more yards. See which team to pick here.
Why you should back the Commanders Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is off to a solid start to his professional career, leading the team in both rushing and passing. The second pick of the 2024 NFL Draft has played in all 10 games, completing 180 of 262 passes (68.7%) for 2,147 yards and nine touchdowns. He has been picked off twice, and has a 101.7 rating. He has also carried 85 times for 464 yards (5.5 average) and four touchdowns. He has three explosive runs of 20 or more yards, including a long of 46.
His top target on offense is wide receiver Terry McLaurin. In 10 games, he has 47 receptions for 711 yards (15.1 average) and six touchdowns. He has nine big plays, including a long of 66 yards, with 170 yards after the catch and 35 first-down conversions. In last Sunday’s loss to the Steelers, he caught five passes for 113 yards (22.6 average). See which team to pick here.
How to make Commanders vs. Eagles picks SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the total, projecting 55 total points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the NFL model’s picks at SportsLine.
Only four teams have allowed fewer points per game than the Eagles this season, with Philadelphia surrendering 17.9 per game. It’s a significant improvement after allowing the third-most points (25.6) in the league last season. With the Eagles’ improved defensive play, should that deter daily Fantasy football players from spending big money on top Commanders options in the NFL DFS player pool for Eagles vs. Commanders on Thursday Night Football to kick off the Week 11 NFL schedule? How should Washington’s shocking climb in the division NFL DFS strategy? Before locking in any NFL DFS lineups for Eagles vs. Commanders on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to check out the NFL DFS lineup advice, strategy and player stacks from SportsLine NFL daily Fantasy expert Jimmie Kaylor.
Kaylor is a NFL and DFS expert for SportsLine, who opened the 2022 NFL season by winning DraftKings’ NFL Showdown Thursday Kickoff Millionaire contest. He edged out over 355,000 other entrants in the contest and also has multiple five-figure tournament wins on his DFS resume. Kaylor, who cashed big all season in 2022, has covered the NFL and college football for close to a decade as a member of the Pro Football Writers of America, and his background as a former college and NFL player gives him a unique perspective when building his fantasy lineups and locking in his betting picks on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kaylor hit on epic NFL DFS picks for SportsLine members throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons. In 2022, he was all over Travis Kelce’s four-touchdown performance against the Raiders on Monday Night Football, Kirk Cousins’ 460-yard, four-TD performance on Thanksgiving Day, and T.J. Hockenson’s 13 catches for 109 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15. In 2023, he hit on Ja’Marr Chase’s massive Week 5 performance (15 catches, 192 yards, three TDs), D.J. Moore’s eight catches for 230 yards and three touchdowns in Week 14, and De’Von Anchane’s breakout performance (233 total yards, four TD’s) in Week 3.
This season, some of Kaylor’s top picks in Showdown DFS slates include Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed, (4-138-1, 33-1), Bills quarterback Josh Allen (263-4), and Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (509-4). Anyone who followed his picks is way up.
Now, Kaylor has turned his attention to Commanders vs. Eagles on Thursday Night Football in Week 9 and locked in his top daily Fantasy football picks. You can only see his picks and analysis at SportsLine.
Top NFL DFS picks for Eagles vs. Commanders One of Kaylor’s top NFL DFS picks for Thursday Night Football is Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. The 27-year-old is second in the NFL in rushing yards (991) and although he broke his streak of three straight 100-yard rushing performances, much of that is due to the lopsided score. The Eagles defeated the Cowboys, 34-6, last week so Barkley only played a season-low 51% of snaps. He still finished with 66 yards on 14 carries and added a 12-yard reception.
But Barkley has been the bellcow running back in Philadelphia this season. He’s second in the NFL in carries and he’s played more than 70% of snaps in three of the last five games. He plays the vast majority of snaps in close contests and given the 3.5-point spread against the Commanders, according to the latest NFL odds from the SportsLine Consensus, a significant workload should be expected. Although it’s a short week, Barkley’s limited carries last week should ease any over usage concerns.
Kaylor is also targeting Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin. The 29-year-old is averaging 71.1 yards per game, the second-most of his six-year career, as he’s on pace for his best season as a professional. McLaurin is third in the NFL in receiving yards (711) as Jayden Daniels’ clear top option, being targeted on 23.9% of passing attempts, including drawing 38.4% of wide receiver targets.
McLaurin had five receptions for 113 yards last week against the Steelers. That came after scoring two touchdowns against the Giants and having five receptions for 125 yards against the Bears the week before. Daniels is targeting McLaurin for deep shots down the field with his 14.6 yards average depth of target the best of his career. He’s the focal point of a significantly improved Washington offense and someone Kaylor expects heavily involved in a key divisional matchup for the Commanders. See who else Kaylor likes right here.
How to set Eagles vs. Commanders NFL DFS lineups, player pool Kaylor is also targeting another undervalued player who could explode for huge numbers in Commanders vs. Eagles. This pick could be the difference between winning your tournaments and cash games or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is, and the rest of Kaylor’s NFL DFS picks, at SportsLine.
PHILADELPHIA — The NFC East is expected to have a different champion for the 20th consecutive season, continuing the longest streak in NFL history. The contenders for the division title are the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, as they battle it out for first place in the NFC East on Thursday night.
Washington (7-3) has been the surprise of the NFL this season. Led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Commanders are off to their best start since 1996 and in position to compete for their first division title since 2020. The Eagles (7-2) are flying high with five straight wins, playing as one of the best teams in the NFL during the stretch. An Eagles win Thursday night would put them up two games in the loss column for the division lead while a Commanders victory gives Washington first place in the division heading into late November.
Both Philadelphia and Washington will meet again this season, but this is the most crucial game for each team to date.
Where to watch Commanders vs. Eagles Date: Thursday, Nov. 14 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Location: Lincoln Financial Field — Philadelphia Live stream: Prime Video Follow: CBS Sports App Odds: Eagles -3.5, OU 48.5 (via BetMGM) Check out the latest BetMGM promo code to get in the game.
Is there a blueprint to stopping Jayden Daniels? Daniels has been one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league this season, as the rookie standout has been a problem around the league through 10 games, having one of the best starts for any quarterback in league history. He’s the second quarterback since the 1970 merger with 200 pass yards per game and 45 rush yards per game in his first 10 career games (Robert Griffin III was the first) and the third-most rush yards by a quarterback (464) in his first 10 career games.
He’s completed 68.7% of his passes for 2,147 yards with nine touchdowns to two interceptions for a 101.7 passer rating, adding 464 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The Commanders are 7-3 and have scored on 58.3% of the drives, the second-highest rate since the merger.
Even though Daniels has been a force in his rookie season, the Pittsburgh Steelers did take away his dual-threat ability running the football. Daniels notched a season-low five yards rushing in Sunday’s loss, only the second time this season he was held to under 20 rushing yards.
So what did the Steelers do to slow down Daniels? They rushed five-or-more defenders to take away his running game. THE NFL TODAY analyst Nate Burleson looked at what the Steelers did and if the Eagles can replicate that.
“They can try to mimic the same thing,” Burleson said. “You gotta always keep somebody spying on Jayden. Often times when they show blitz or don’t blitz, one of those linebackers is a spy on the QB … What you’ll see with a guy like that is you either have a team that will send blitzes to see if he can get the ball out of his hands faster or a team that is going to try to do twists up front with four or five guys then drop everyone else into coverage — into zone area.
“So when Daniels is looking down the field going through his progressions, he’s seeing different color jerseys out there and you’re forcing him to make grave decisions. The Eagles will have a decision to make. I feel like they’ll do a mix of both in the first half and figure out what’s working and go with that game plan in the second half.”
The Eagles may need time to figure out Daniels before they can slow him down.
The success behind Jalen Hurts’ play Hurts has arguably been playing the best football of his career during the Eagles’ five-game win streak. He’s the first quarterback in NFL history with a pass touchdown, rush touchdown, and 100+ passer rating in four consecutive games. Hurts has completed 71.8% of his passes for 1,046 yards, eight touchdowns to one interception for a 126.1 passer rating over his last five games. This is combined with eight rushing touchdowns during the stretch.
The Eagles quarterback is first in the NFL in total touchdowns (16), second in passer rating (only to Lamar Jackson, who is at 140.5) and second in yards per attempt (10.2, trailing Jackson’s 10.6).
Is Hurts’ success a product of Kellen Moore’s offense? Is he starting to master it?
“It just seems like they have found their rhythm, and they’re balanced,” Burleson said. “There’s games they go on and they’re gonna tote that rock to open up the pass game. Saquon Barkley is the missing piece and he’s on pace to have a career year.
“What the defenses have to do when they face a healthy Saquon, they are going to have to focus on him in the backfield. At times they are going to load the box and send blitzes to keep him in check. This dude is running through people, running through tacklers, and picking up blitzes. That opens things up.”
Barkley leads the NFL with 556 rushing yards since Week 6, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He has 991 rushing yards and 5.8 yards per carry on the season, as the rushing yards are the most in Eagles history through nine games. Barkley’s 127.7 scrimmage yards per game also lead the league.
Hurts is playing the best football of his career, but Barkley has been playing a major role in that.
Prediction This game will come down to how quickly the Eagles defense can contain Daniels, and not allow him to take over the game. On a short week, the Eagles have the advantage playing at home with the entire offense healthy (Jordan Mailata is expected back at left tackle).
This game may take the Eagles a bit to get going, but they have come out firing in the second half throughout the season. That isn’t expected to change this week.
Projected score: Eagles 33, Washington 23 The pick: Eagles -3.5
Bonus: SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein, who is on a 33-15-1 roll on Commanders games is leaning the Under in Thursday night’s game, but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.
We went 4-1 straight up on our top five picks, but 1-4 against the spread. The Baltimore Ravens defeated the Cincinnati Bengals by a single point, the San Francisco 49ers struggled with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons embarrassed themselves against the New Orleans Saints and we got caught by the hook in the Detroit Lions’ victory over the Houston Texans. At least the Los Angeles Chargers came through for us against the Tennessee Titans.
This week in the NFL, Russell Wilson tests his perfect 3-0 record vs. the rival Ravens, Jameis Winston returns to New Orleans to play his former team and Patrick Mahomes battles Josh Allen in arguably the best AFC rivalry right now. If you haven’t yet, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code so you can make money, too. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week, which wasn’t a massive surprise considering Chicago’s offense has been one of the worst in the league so far. They haven’t scored a touchdown since Oct. 27!
The Bears have now lost three straight games, while the Packers are fresh off their bye. Green Bay has actually won its last 10 vs. Chicago, winning by an average of 12.7 points per game. The Packers are a borderline contender in my opinion, and this is a great opportunity to create some momentum with a road victory. The Bears haven’t scored a touchdown on 23 straight offensive drives, so I’ll lay the 5.5 points with Jordan Love and Co.
The pick: Packers -5.5 Projected score: Packers 24-17
Will Jordan Love throw two touchdowns on Sunday? Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-14) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Some NFL bettors automatically avoid massive lines, but I’m almost drawn to them. Sometimes I’ll make the big underdog a best bet, while other times I’ll hammer the favorite. I think this is a situation where we hammer the favorite.
This is the biggest number we’ve seen in the NFL this year, but for good reason. Mac Jones is again starting in place of the injured Trevor Lawrence, and he’s 0-9 SU and ATS in his past nine starts as a road underdog. Yes, taking a team -14 is scary, but the Lions own the best point differential in the NFL this year (+113). Plus, did you know double-digit favorites are 4-0 ATS this season? And I made three of those double-digit favorites best bets! That includes taking the Lions to cover 11.5 vs. the Titans earlier this year. Detroit won that game by 38.
The pick: Lions -14 Projected score: Lions 35-14
Can Jameson Williams cross 42.5 receiving yards for the second straight game? Bet his props using this BetMGM promo.
Cleveland Browns (-1) at New Orleans Saints Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
Jameis Winston revenge game! You know the former Saint will be motivated to beat his former team in New Orleans, and he even had the bye week to prepare. The Saints actually opened as favorites in this matchup, but the number has moved towards the Browns.
Darren Rizzi had a great first win against the Falcons, but he needed Younghoe Koo to miss what felt like 100 field goals to win that game by a measly three points. If the Browns can contain the suddenly-explosive Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Winston can take care of the ball, Cleveland should win this game. Watch for Myles Garrett to be a difference-maker.
The pick: Browns -1 Projected score: Browns 23-21
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7.5) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I was blown away by the Dolphins defense on Monday night. They held Matthew Stafford’s offense out of the end zone entirely, and forced two turnovers in a 23-15 win. The Los Angeles Rams went 0 for 3 in the red zone, and didn’t even convert a third down until the second half. Again, we are talking about Sean McVay’s offense, which features Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams!
Up next for Miami is Vegas, who rank fourth-worst in the NFL in total offense with 280.7 yards per game. The Raiders haven’t won a game since September! I do think Miami’s upset win over Los Angeles could serve as a turning point — especially if Anthony Weaver’s defense continues to play like this.
The pick: Dolphins -7.5 Projected score: Dolphins 22-13
Houston Texans (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN and fubo, try for free)
The Texans have struggled over the past few weeks, and the absence of Nico Collins is a reason why. However, the star wideout is expected back this week after missing the past five games due to a hamstring injury. Houston is 4-1 with Collins in the lineup, and 2-3 without him.
The 7.5-point spread isn’t insignificant, but the Cowboys are 0-4 SU and ATS at home. They were just blown out by 28 points in their first game without Dak Prescott. Cooper Rush completed 13 of 23 passes for a whopping 45 yards in his first start this season!
The Texans on the other hand need to get something going. They lost by eight points to the New York Jets on Halloween, then blew a 23-7 lead to the Lions in prime time last week. This is a great opportunity for C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans.
As we head into Week 11, I have no idea how the Kansas City Chiefs are still undefeated, but they are.
Every week, they discover a new way to win and just when I think they can’t top themselves from the week before, they do something like BLOCK a field goal on the final play. There have been at least five games this season where I thought for sure that the Chiefs were going to lose, but clearly, I know nothing about football, because they didn’t lose any of them.
I know what you’re thinking and I agree: At this point, I think we have to blame the Hallmark Channel for all of the Chiefs’ success this year.
The Chiefs haven’t lost a single game since the Hallmark Channel announced that it was making a Christmas movie about them and that can’t be a coincidence. If you didn’t know about the movie, just watch the short preview below.
HolidayTouchdown: A @Chiefs Love Story premieres Nov 30 on @HallmarkChannel pic.twitter.com/NzrRJ6IljR
— Skydance (@Skydance) September 6, 2024 If you’ve seen any Hallmark Christmas movies, then you know how magical they are and I should have known as soon as that preview came out that I needed to start betting on the Chiefs to win every week. If I had done that from the start, I’d already have won enough money to make my own Hallmark Christmas movie.
Although the Chiefs have managed to stay undefeated through the first 10 weeks of the season, they have their biggest test of the year coming up on Sunday against the Bills. Will Buffalo pull off the upset or will the Hallmark Christmas movie magic last for another week? Let’s get to the Week 11 picks and find out.
NFL Week 11 picks Washington (7-3) at Philadelphia (7-2) Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime) Point spread pick: Eagles (-3 at FanDuel)
The NFC East has suddenly turned into my favorite division in the NFL and that’s mostly because it’s so entertaining. On one hand, you have the two-ring circus known as the Cowboys and Giants, who are battling it out for the title of worst team in the NFL. You know the Cowboys season has hit rock bottom when Jerry Jones is being called out by his own players about the fact that his $1.2 billion stadium has a major design flaw.
CeeDee Lamb on not catching the potential touchdown pass from Cooper rush in the sun: “I couldn’t see.” Are you in favor of curtains in AT&T stadium? “1000 percent.”#DallasCowboys #cowboys #NFL pic.twitter.com/0i5y6Dvslq
— Pat Doney (@PatDoneyNBC5) November 11, 2024 A frustrated Jerry Jones had some comments about the sun impacting play at AT&T Stadium: “By the way, we know where the sun is going to be when we decide to flip the coin or not. We do know where the damn sun is going to be in our own stadium.”
Why not put up curtains over the… pic.twitter.com/28skNrZYBq
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) November 11, 2024 Curtains or no curtains, the Eagles absolutely embarrassed the Cowboys on Sunday, and now, they have to turn around and play the most surprising team in the NFL this year: The Washington Commanders.
For most of the past 20 years, being a Commanders fans was generally a miserable experience, but over the past 18 months, that’s changed considerably. Just look at what the team. has done recently: They got rid of Dan Snyder, they found a franchise quarterback and they’re on track to make the playoffs for just the second time since 2016.
They could take a big step toward winning the NFC East title if they can beat the Eagles this week, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. If the Commanders have struggled at one thing this year, it’s stopping the run and if you can’t stop the run, the last guy in the NFC you want to be facing is Saquon Barkley. The Eagles running back is averaging 110.1 yards per game this year, which is second in the NFL. If you’re now wondering how bad the Commanders are at stopping the run, they’re surrendering 142.7 yards per game on the ground, which is the fifth-worst number in the NFL.
And as crazy as it sounds, Barkley should be fresh for this game, because he only got 14 carries in Week 10 against the Cowboys. I’m pretty sure some Eagles fans actually wanted Nick Sirianni fired in Week 10 because of the way he used Barkley…
Saquon Barkley has SEVEN CARRIES through >31 minutes of football.
That is UNACCEPTABLE! RUN THE BALL! RUN THE BALL! RUN THE BALL! RUN THE BALL!
— Jay (@Jays_Oh_Kay) November 10, 2024 Saquon Barkley has 6 carries….
— Off the Cliff Show on YouTube (@CliffNotez_) November 10, 2024 Although Eagles fans and fantasy owners were upset with Barkley’s usage, there might have been some method to the madness. With the Eagles in control for nearly the entire game against Dallas (a 34-6 win) there was no reason to get Barkley beat up knowing that he was going to have to turn around and play on Thursday.
Basically, Sirianni is playing 5-D chess while the rest of us are playing Boggle. I can’t pick against a coach who’s playing 5-D chess.
The pick: Eagles 27-24 over Commanders
Baltimore (7-3) at Pittsburgh (7-2) 1 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread pick: Ravens (-3 at BetMGM)
I don’t think realized how stacked the NFL schedule was this week until I saw that this game is at 1 p.m. ET. There’s basically at least one must-see game in every viewing window this week and this is the one were getting at 1 p.m. ET. Put the kids to bed and buckle up, because this game is probably going to get crazy. I take that back, 1 p.m. ET is probably too early to put the kids to bed, so just buckle up.
Through the first 10 weeks of the season, the Steelers have looked like the best team in the AFC North, but I can’t say that for sure, because they haven’t actually played anyone in the AFC North yet. That’s right, the Steelers have made it to week 11 without playing a division game and if you’re wondering whether that’s bizarre, the answer is yes. This is the longest any team has gone to start a season without playing a division game.
This game gives us the two longest tenured coaches in the NFL: Mike Tomlin has been with the Steelers since 2007 while John Harbaugh has been in Baltimore since 2008. No other NFL team has had the same coach since even 2012.
I think what I’m trying to say here is that these two coaches know each other well. Tomlin knows how to slow down Lamar Jackson, which is a big reason why the Ravens QB is just 2-4 against Pittsburgh with seven interceptions in those six games. Also, the Steelers have won seven of their last eight overall in this series and that’s mostly happening because Tomlin’s defense tends to dominate Baltimore.
The Steelers have held the Ravens under 20 points in seven straight games and if that happens again on Sunday, then Pittsburgh is likely going to win. However, I think the game-changer here is going to be Derrick Henry. The Steelers are 6-0 this season when they hold their opponent under 100 rushing yards, but 1-2 when they don’t. If Henry can steamroll his way through the Steelers and help Baltimore control the game on the ground, then the Ravens will have a good chance of leaving Pittsburgh in total control of the AFC North and I’ll say that happens.
The pick: Ravens 23-20 over Steelers
Atlanta (6-4) at Denver (5-5) 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox) Point spread pick: Broncos (-1.5 at FanDuel)
It’s almost fitting that these two teams are playing this week because they’re coming off two of the most painful losses of Week 10. I’m not saying NFL teams should hug at midfield during pregame, but if the Falcons and Broncos wanted to console each other for their losses last week, I don’t think anyone would be opposed.
On one hand, we have the Broncos: They were attempting a 35-yard field goal to beat the Chiefs on the final play of the game, but the kick was blocked.
On the other hand, we have the Falcons, who lost a game they had no business losing. In Week 10, Atlanta lost to the Saints 20-17 and a big reason they lost is because Younghoe Koo missed three field goals. If you’re scoring at home, that means the Broncos and Falcons lost by a combined five points on a day where they missed a combined five field goals.
So what do those close losses mean for this week? Well, it means that I think the Falcons are in trouble. Not only do they have to bounce back from a devastating loss, but they have to do it on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Broncos are one of just two teams in the NFL that’s surrendering under 200 passing yards per game and under 105 rushing yards per game.
The Broncos have faced several top quarterbacks this season, including Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert, but they still haven’t given up a single 300-yard passing game and I have a tough time seeing Kirk Cousins ending that streak. If the Broncos defense can slow down Bijan Robinson, that will put Denver in a good spot to win. The Broncos are 5-1 this season when they surrender 120 rushing yards or loss.
With these two teams playing, I feel like someone is in for another painful loss and I’ll go ahead and say that someone is the Falcons.
The pick: Broncos 20-17 over Falcons
Kansas City (9-0) at Buffalo (8-2) 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread pick: Bills (-2.5 at DraftKings)
This is easily the biggest game of Week 11 and I’m not just saying that because it’s on CBS. If you have plans on Sunday, cancel them. If you don’t have plans, then make some, just so you can cancel them.
Actually, I take that back, you can do whatever you want on Sunday, just make sure you’re in front of a television by 4:25 p.m. ET when this game kicks off. If you don’t own a television, then you can stream the game on Paramount+. If you don’t have the internet, I’m not sure how you’re reading this, but you can go to a bar to watch. If you don’t live near a bar, then you can sit in your car and listen to the game on the radio.
If this game ends up being like every other Chiefs game this season, then that means it’s going to be an instant classic that goes down to the wire. The Chiefs have won nine games and seven of those have been decided by one score and five of those seven have been so dramatic that they probably should all get their own “30 for 30” documentary at some point.
Here are Kansas City’s wildest wins so far:
Week 1: Chiefs beat Ravens 27-20 after Isaiah Likely’s toe is ruled out of bounds in the end zone on the final play of the game. Week 2: Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25 after Harrison Butker hits a 51-yard field goal on the final play of the game. Week 3: Chiefs beat Falcons 22-17 after Atlanta fails on a fourth-and-1 from Kansas City’s 13-yard line with under a minute left to play. Week 9: Chiefs beat Buccaneers 30-24 after Kareem Hunt scores a walk-off TD in overtime. Week 10: Chiefs beat Broncos 16-14 after Leo Chenal blocks a 35-yard field goal on the final play of the game.
At this point, my only theory is that God is betting big money on the Chiefs each week. Just kidding, we all know that God doesn’t gamble on football.
Although the Bills can’t seem to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, that hasn’t been the case in the regular season. This will mark the fourth straight year that the Bills have had to play a regular-season game against the Chiefs and they won in 2021, they won in 2022, they won in 2023 and I feel like they’re going to also win in 2024.
The one reason I love the Bills here is because Josh Allen is always at his best when he plays at home and he’s even better when he’s playing the Chiefs. A big reason the Bills are 3-0 in their past three regular season games against Kansas City is because Allen always seems to play like Superman when he faces the Chiefs. In those three wins, he’s averaged 292.3 passing yards per game and he’s thrown nine touchdown passes compared to just one interception. On the other hand, Mahomes has six interceptions in those same three regular season games. The Chiefs quarterback always seems to flop against the Bills in the regular season and I’m starting to think he’s doing it on purpose: He loses the regular-season game so that he’s extra motivated to beat the Bills in the playoffs.
Mahomes is 3-0 in his last three playoff games against the Bills, but 0-3 in his past three regular-season games, and last I checked, this isn’t a playoff game. The 1972 Dolphins will be able to pop their champagne on Sunday because the Chiefs are going down.
The pick: Bills 27-24 over Chiefs
Cincinnati (4-6) at L.A. Chargers (6-3) 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) Point spread pick: Bengals (+1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook) Check out the latest FanDuel promo to get in the game
This has to be the first time ever that a 4-6 team has been flexed to Sunday night, but let me say, I’m totally on board with the decision. If this game didn’t get moved to prime time, we were going to get stuck with Jets-Colts in the Sunday night slot and no one wanted that. Not even Jets and Colts fans.
With the Bengals playing in the national spotlight, I don’t want to spoil things for everyone, but I’ve watched enough Bengals games this year to know exactly how this game is going to play out, and that’s because nearly every game goes the exact same way for Cincinnati: Joe Burrow will throw for 475 yards and five touchdowns, but the Bengals will still somehow be trailing in the fourth quarter and then probably lose.
Every game is a roller coaster ride for Bengals fans, except the roller coaster always seems to crash into a brick wall at the end.
The only upside for the Bengals this week is that if Burrow does have a big game, they’re likely going to win. The Chargers have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL this year and they’ve been so good that no QB has topped 260 passing yards against them. The Chargers are 5-1 when they hold their opponent to 225 passing yards or less, but 1-2 when their opponent throws for 226 yards or more.
This is a game that matches strength vs. strength: Will Burrow have any success against the Chargers defense? If he does, that will put the Bengals in a good spot to steal the win. If this turns into a shootout, the Chargers almost certainly aren’t going to be able to keep up. They haven’t scored more than 27 points in a single game this season and they’re 1-3 when their opponent scores at least 17 points.
The Chargers don’t have a high-powered offense, so if Burrow can get the Bengals offense going, it’s hard to see Los Angeles keeping up.
In franchise history, the Bengals have NEVER won two Sunday night games in the same season, but that drought could end with a victory here and I’ll say it happens.
The pick: Bengals 27-20 over Chargers
NFL Week 11 picks: All the rest Packers 27-17 over Bears Lions 34-13 over Jaguars Vikings 24-17 over Titans Dolphins 30-20 over Raiders Rams 24-16 over Patriots Colts 23-20 over Jets Browns 23-16 over Saints 49ers 34-24 over Seahawks Texans 31-17 over Cowboys
BYES: Giants, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers
Last Week Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Bills would beat the Colts 30-20 and guess what happened? The Bills beat the Colts, 30-20. That’s right, for the first time this season, I nailed the exact score of a game. Did I immediately go out and buy 17 lottery tickets afterward? Yes, but they all lost, so that was a total waste of money.
Worst pick: At this point, I don’t think anyone is surprised by my worst pick because it seems to be the same thing every week: I pick the Jets to win because I can’t stop picking them, and then not surprisingly, they lose. In Week 10, I picked the Jets to beat the Cardinals and not only was it my worst pick of the week, but it might have been my worst pick of the year. At the rate things are going, I’m going to have to hire someone who has one job and that one job will be to talk me out of picking the Jets every week.
By the way, if you’re wondering whether the Jets look just as bad in person as they do on TV, the answer is yes.
